Thinking Pinoy: 2 friends discuss Mar Roxas' Oplan Lambat Sibat and PH crime surge

December 14, 2015

2 friends discuss Mar Roxas' Oplan Lambat Sibat and PH crime surge


This is a conversation I had with my friend JA about how Mar Roxas' Oplan Lambat-Sibat affected policemen's work attidudes, crime reporting, and it's effect on PH crime. We hope you can correct us if we are wrong, because we sincerely hope that we are wrong. 





DISCLAIMER: Please note that JA is different from the JC who's featured in my previous "2 friends" blog posts.


TP: Initially, I rooted for Mar noong dati because Mar is the most technocratic among 4 presidential candidates.

JA: Oh...

TP: Kaya lang I found out later on that while he can appreciate science, he chose not to hire technocrats for subordinates. I feel my issues against Mar are legitimate concerns at hindi pointless bashing.

JA: I feel you. Pero about don technocrats, really? His staff members are not technocrats?

TP: Well, didn't you see the botched Oplan Lambat-Sibat? Kung may isang matinong statistician lang doon, they would see the fatal flaw in less than 3 hours.

JA: Truthfully, I didn't even read through that Oplan Lambat-Sibat article of yours. But wait! Si Mar, dapat he saw through it din hindi ba?
NOTE: Ang article na binanggit ni JA ay ang

TP: Well, it’s either he was incapable of spotting the problem, or it was his intention to manipulate the reporting system. Naku teh, by the end of that article, 180/130 na blood pressure mo.

JA: Is he really brilliant or at least competent in terms of his skills as an economist? Minsan nagdududa na ako eh.

TP: Well, i am not really sure. Remember, sometimes, in the game of life, it’s  about who's given the opportunity and who's not. For example, someone has a much higher IQ than us pero he ended up as a basurero because his dad can’t afford his schooling. It's not his fault, pero that's life.






JA: Si Mar, feeling ko, kulang  sa leadership skills, kulang sa management skills, so ano na lang? Yun na lang Wharton niya ang pangyabang niya eh.

TP: In fairness to Mar Roxas, meron siyang real technical skills. He was an investment banker after all. Problema nga lang, he doesn't have interpersonal skills. Just look at his PR gaffes.

JA: I respected him for that actually, him being a technocrat, pero my gosh…

TP: That’s the problem when you cross over from dealing with a bunch of computer screens to dealing with a bunch of real, breathing humans.

JA: Pero ‘teh, from experience ha, the higher you go up the management ladder, it is the interpersonal skills that matter more, even for us who work in the technical fields.

TP: True, and the farther you go in life, ganoon din.

JA: So naman! Andaming taon na ang lumipas, nagpractice na sana siya ng people skills. Pero lumalayo na tayo ng usapan. So anyare sa Oplan Lambat-Sibat?

TP: Basically, isang major thrust ng Oplan Lambat-Sibat ay stricter reporting ng crimes. Tapos because Mar is essentially a business executive, he pressures people to deliver no matter what. He even fired NCRPO’s second-tier police chiefs because of bad statistics, like, NPD SPD, QCPD chiefs etc.




JA: Yeah, parang sa mga multinational corporations lang, pero iba naman dapat ang management style para sa government agencies, di ba?

TP: Tama. So hayon, nung kumalat ang balita na Miss Minchin ang peg ni Mar Roxas, takot na takot na ang mga local police stations na magisa at masisante, niluto tuloy nila ang stats at the precinct level. To make matters worse, ‘yung main statistic nila – total crime volume – ay napakadali nang lutuin as it is.

JA: Ha? Paanong madaling lutuin?

TP: Ang  total crime volume kasi, in basic terms. ay sum ng blotter entries ng serious at ng petty crimes. So basically, ginawa ng mga low-level na pulis, mininimize ang blotter reporting ng petty crime.

JA: Anong serious at petty?

TP: Pag sinabi kong serious, ibig sabihin ko murder, rape, robbery, grand larceny, etc. Pag sinabi kong petty, tipong smoking sa public space, illegal parking, pagpopokpok, ung mga crime na hindi naman talaga karumal-dumal.

JA: I’m listening.

TP: In short, parang humanap sila ng paraan para hindi na mag-blotter ng petty crimes para bumaba ang total crime volume. Pag bumaba ang total crime volume, maiiwasan nila ang galit ni DILG Secretary Mar Roxas.



JA: Eh kung ganoon, bakit hindi nila paliitin din ang blotter numbers ng serious crimes?

TP: Siyempre mahirap naman kasing hindi iblotter ang serious crimes kasi ipaglalaban talaga yon ng mga complainant. Kung kapatid ko mapatay, ipahahabol ko sa pulis yong pumatay kahit anong mangyari, di ba?

JA: Therefore all the stats we have now are not accurate? Wow!

TP: I cannot be certain about that komo hindi naman nagrerelease ang PNP ng detailed statistics. May itinatago yata. Pero news reports suggest na may lutuan ngang nagaganap.

JA: Ok so paano mismo nangyayari?

TP:  Ganito, halimbawa, example lang ito at hindi actual data ha. Kunwari, naglutuan ng crime statistics sa Caloocan City. Tapos sa Davao City naman, normal na honest na crime reporting lang. Dahil babawasan ng Caloocan ang petty crimes...
  • Caloocan City crime = 8000 blotters = 7900 serious, 100 petty
  • Davao Crime = 18000  = 6000 serious, 12000 petty.
JA: Yeah. Paano ka nga bang hindi mapapamura?

TP: Ok, wait lang, lilinawin ko lang ha. Ang actual na formula ay
  • Crime volume = Index Crime + Non-index Crime
  • Index crime ay crimes against persons and property,
  • Non-index ay minor crimes at mga crimes arising from police-initiated na operations (buy bust, sting, ganun-ganun).
JA: O, tapos?

TP: So basically ang police, sa ngalan ng mas mababang crime volume…
  1. halos ‘di nagbablotter ng non index
  2. halos ‘di na nagre-raid.
JA: Gosh, so ang ultimate effect ng lambat sibat ay we now live in a more dangerous place?

TP: Siguro, kasi kung hindi na nire-raid ang mga shabu lab para lang bawasan ang crime reports, e di todo ang production nila, di ba?




JA: Just to fit into Mar´s statistical requirements?

TP: Apparently, yes. E kasi from reports pag mataas ang numbers nila, baka masisante sila. So parang pag ginawa nila trabaho nila, masisisante sila. O e di wag na lang magtrabaho para tuloy ang sweldo.

JA: Sa bagay, kung ganyan nga, ‘di mo rin masisisi ang PNP. Kasi kung 12,000 lang sweldo mo tapos masisisante ka pa, san ka pa nga ba pupulutin?

TP: Yup.



JA: What a shitty plan.

TP: Not just shitty. From the looks of it, Mar Roxas’ unrealistic management has made this country a more dangerous place to live in.

JA: E kung di na nga nagtratrabaho ng tama ang mga pulis, ganun nga talaga mangyayari.

TP: E kasi sa Davao nilinaw nila na 12000 ang non-index crimes at halos puro police initiated operations. Syempre pagka nang-raid ka at dinala mo sa presinto ang kusinero ng shabu, ibablotter mo malamang. Samantalang most areas outside Davao City, halos wala pang nire-release ang PNP na breakdown ng crime stats, yung kung ilan ang index at ilan ang hindi. Puro crime volume lang ang PNP reports.

JA: Yeah. God, he must not win. Napakapunyeta ng gobyerno.

TP: At this point, parang ganun na nga. Kasi si Miriam sakitin e pano kung mamatay 'yon agad, realtalk lang. Si Grace Poe ang daming kaso, baka mamaya presidente na ma-DQ pa. Si Binay kurakot, so wala nang ibang choice kundi 'yon.

JA: Ako na ang inaaltapresyon! Hahaha!

TP: Gaga! LOL, wag ka high-bloodin. Madalas naman talaga korupsyon sa gobyerno. Ang madalang lang mangyari e ang pagkatalo ng Golden State Warriors. #Charot


JA:  Che! So ang point mo e parang hindi nagrerelease ang PNP ng detailed crime stats kasi baka lilitaw na sobrang laki ng serious crimes kumpara sa petty crimes, dahil under-reported ang petty crimes?

TP: Exactly. E sa totoo lang ‘teh, kung ako lang, bat ako matatakot sa illegal parking? Hindi ko ikakamamatay yon. Matatakot ako sa mamamatay tao at magnanakaw, pero hindi sa parking violator.

JA: Oo pera lang ang illegal parking di ba?

TP: True. So ayon, ganun kasabog ang Oplan Lambat-Sibat.

JA: Tapos walang sense of accountability ang mga ungas. Thanks for the explanation, tinyaga mo ha.

TP: Actually, ‘teh,  hindi kita tinyaga. Dahil ito ang next blog post ko! HAHAHAHAH!

JA: Ay! Hahahaha!

TP: Remember, Robin-Hoodish Machiavellian ako.

JA: Oooh! Hahaha! Sige gow at ishare natin ‘yan.

TP: Hahahaha!



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