May 16, 2016

2 Friends on post-May 9th Roxas, Poe, Duterte, BBM, and Robredo

Two Friends TP and JC evaluate Mar Roxas' campaign and Grace Poe's moment of glory. They also talked about post-election scenarios and the possible fate of the Bongbong Marcos - Leni Robredo saga.

BBM, Robredo, and Integrity of Elections

TP: Nagsusulat ako ng article today. Grounds for impeachment ng Comelec, stemming from their multiple errors, culminating in the issue about their use of obsolete technology [TP: Obsolete Tech]. Yung si Robredo, in her personal capacity, feeling ko wala siyang kinalaman don. Kaya lang, as for the Liberal Party, di ko sure. On one hand, pwede ma-absuwelto si Leni because of plausible deniability a la CIA. On the other hand, she still has to be accountable for her decision to ally with LP. She's a grown up, after all.
JC: What about the other results?

TP: Senatoriables? Baka tamaan 'yan. Presidency? Malabo na mabago dahil nagconcede na lahat and it’s easy to argue that if Comelec were rigged, it would have been rigged against Duterte yet Duterte still won.

JC: Exactly, parang ang hirap ibenta nag selective cheating idea.

TP: Note ha. Don’t jump into conclusions. Kahit crude ang English ko, may nuances yung article ko. I said cheating-prone, hindi ko sinabi na may cheating. Ang point e why get a risky system? Kasi ang dating nung sa Comelec e alam nilang sabog na ang Montero, pero Montero pa rin binili nila.

JC: Okay... Was it deliberate or just what was within our means?

TP: I am still checking on that. However, remember that Comelec hired Smartmatic dahil napasubo na raw [Inquirer]. Kaya lang, 1987 pa lang, alam na nating may 2016 elections di ba? So baket sila aligagang-aligaga?

JC: I suppose my worry is that all results would be called into question if people insist on questioning Comelec. Wouldn't that imply that none of the LP winners won fair and square?

TP: Not necessarily. From available evidence, I see that Smartmatic’s system is cheating-prone, but I didn’t say that there was cheating. No system is perfect, but my issue is Smartmatic’s system is too not-perfect.

JC: Sorry. Naguguluhan ako.

TP: Kung ikukuwestyon ang cheating, dapat may prima facie evidence ang complainant. Kung ang sole evidence ng isang suspecting senatoriable ay MD5, it will not fly. Aggravating na circumstantial evidence lang ung MD5. At this point, I have yet to see evidence that strongly suggests intrinsic, systematic cheating sa Comelec-Smartmatic system as a whole. Besides, it's logistically impossible (45 days to go) and it’s politically inconvenient to even bother complaining about it, but of course, its' the losing senatoriables' call.

However, in specific instances, possible i-contest iyan. In BBM’s case, he can potentially use the Basilan election returns, dahil doon sa “super sweeps” ni Leni sa ARMM, suggesting pre-shaded ballots. There are more than just a few instances sa ARMM na super sweeps.

BBM can actually use these ARMM ER's as leads to find evidence of fraud.

JC: Ah I see. Nasusuya ako bigla sa LP.

TP: Gaga ka kasi, sinulat ko na ‘yan months ago e. Sa “Who Benefits from ARMM Voter Registration Spike?”[TP: ARMM]

Aftermath of the Mar vs Duterte Chronicles

JC: I know. My support has always been for Mar. Damay lang ang LP. LP... feeling ko nga… sinabotahe by LP campaign ni Mar e.

TP: Ganito kasi yan, si Mar, walang sariling isip. Ganun lang talaga, masakit mang sabihin. Bakla, maling sabihin yung sabu-sabutahe na yan. Matatanda na yan, alam dapat nila ang nagagawa nila.

Si Digong nga, pag may sablay, I dont blame his campaign team. I blame him. Command responsibility noh.

JC: I can concede to that.

TP: Saka yang si Mar, ‘di pa president, naloloko na ng partido, e pano kung naging presidente pa? Mas maraming buwayang nakapaligid ‘pag presidente na.

JC: Digong's campaign team has been prepared for so long na noh, or so I hear...

TP: What do u mean? Halo-halong chaos lang ang campaign ni Digong. It was not as organized as LP's or Binay's or Poe's. Parang organically na nag organize lang. Pero it was an unwieldy monster. Yung sa article na 10 takeaways from Duterte’s digital campaign [Rappler], I feel it's giving Duterte supporters too much credit. Some of the 10 are true, some are not.

JC: Digong’s campaign people have been working on it for more than a year na daw.

TP: Yes, probably, but Mar has been working on it since 2008 [TP: Ambassador]. In as far as preparedness, joketime lang yung campaign ni Duterte compared to the other three.

JC: Fine. I'm still indignant at the methods used

TP: Anong methods ba?

JC: Hate campaigning (*sigh*), undermining everything about the status quo.

TP: Sa palagay mo ba e nagtanim ng seeds of hate ang Duterte campaign? Bakla, may hate na with or without Digong, nagkataon lang na walang Free Facebook noon.

JC: Exactly.

TP: Would you rather keep the masses voiceless? Mali un baks… that’s undemocratic… kukurutin ka ni Mark Lim [TP: Mark Lim].

JC: Wala kong sinabing ganun. But come on, the demolition of Mar has been vicious.

TP: Let's examine the term "Mar's demolition". Let me refresh your memory, wag ka muna magtype.
  1. He viciously demolished Binay in 2014 [TP: Political Corruption]
  2. He viciously demolished Poe in late 2015 [TP: Poe DQ]
  3. He attempted to demolish Duterte via DQ in 2015 [TP: Plunder].

All that using administration and LP resources, so sa palagay mo teh, unfair pa rin kay Mar?

JC: Not really. I was referring to the memes.

TP: That's his problem. Memes may not be truthful, but they come from somewhere. Look at the tubig sa plato na ang sagwa ng pagka-photoshop.

Bad Photoshop.

JC: Exactly, so much for trying to reach out.

TP: It came from Mar’s elitist air, which Mar admitted to have in as far back as 2008 [TP:Wikileaks]. He had 8 years to fix perception.

JC: But if he tries, he's pretentious. No win situation.

TP: Mali kasi ang packaging and he is a bad marketing guy.

JC: True.

TP: I mean, yeah, we can blame his spin doctors, we concede on that, but at the end of the day it’s still he who decides how and when to act, which kinda leads me to ask the next question: Ano diprensya nung PR campaign ni Rody at ni Mar? Yung no holds barred authenticity ni Digong worked because Digong is essentially part of the masa despite his pedigree [Rappler]. Kung nag no holds barred authenticity si Mar, its 50-50.

JC: Yes. I'm just really disappointed by the cruelty and viciousness I've seen in people I know from all camps.

TP: True. Me too, but that’s a political reality. Kaya lang kasi, I remember Justin Trudeau when he said, noong pinakilala niya cabinet nya, "A cabinet (of Canada) that looks like Canada" [TheStar]. So parang ganon kay Mar… Mar doesn’t look like the Philippines while Digong does, so Digong has the advantage.

JC: Baks masyadong malawak ang perspective mo sa convo natin. I'm just pissed with a lot of people I know.

TP: Pagka ganon, engage them in extra-subtle passive-aggressive conversation if you think they're worth keeping. Otherwise i-block mo na lang.

JC: Exactly what I'm doing.

TP: Pero ayon, ang biggest mistake ni Mar ay he wanted power so much, people noticed it. He didn’t want money, people are ok with that, but his thirst for power is palpable and disconcerting [TP: Political Corruption]. Juxtapose that to Rody who ran unwillingly, saying he has enough accolades to last him to his grave [Rappler].

JC: You could say the same for Grace Poe.

TP: Yeah, but I wasn’t rooting for Grace Poe. But in fairness to grace, she showed grace at the last minute when she didn’t back out. Meanwhile, Mar showed desperation for power (and I guess, a delusion of grandeur) when he asked Grace to withdraw [Inquirer].

JC: No he asked for a chance to talk.

TP: Yeah, but I think you missed the part where PNoy called Poe [CNN]. Again, baks, more than just what’s written in the news, put into account stuff that happens in the backroom.

JC: Nakaka-stress ang hatred mo kay Mar.

TP: Mar? Bakla, it’s not hatred. It’s brutal analysis.

JC: Fine.

TP: I dont hate Mar right now actually, I have moved on... but it just pains me to remember things that he could have done right in his campaign, if only he had the political will to eliminate evil people around him and bring in good and qualified people to his fray.

JC: Thank you. I needed to read that from you.

TP: The biggest irony of it all is his claim na he's a technocrat while his team is hardly technocratic. Just look at how he kicked out Sen. Bam Aquino from Balay [Rappler], despite the fact that Bam is one of the most mabango sa LP [BamAquino].

JC: He tried, I think.

TP: “Tried” is the operative word. Mar is to “try”as Digong is to “do”. That’s the stark contrast.

JC: Fine.

The 2022 President

TP: If I were Mar, I would swallow my pride, ask Digong to make him a part of his team, and ask Digong baka sakali he could train him, so that he’d be ready by 2022.

JC: Doubtful. He's camping in Baguio.

TP: Well then he has to set his priorities straight. It is doubtful, but it’s worth a shot. Mar just has to make sure that it’s just between him and the old man, i.e. without letting Mar’s retinue of trapos knowing about it.

JC: But if Grace runs again...

TP: Grace may win in 2022 if she plays her cards right, but if Digong does it well, Sara or Koko will give her a run for her money.

If he plays his cards right, he can beat Poe in 2022.
JC: Jesus Christ!

TP: Remember madam, Digong was not a contender until early 2015. So possibly, Koko has a good opportunity to become president in 2022, not bad for a 1990 bar topnotcher [Rappler].

JC: I just want to get this summer over with.

TP: Hahaha! It’s over in 2 weeks. Pero the best thing about this election season is it’s the most democractic we’ve ever had so far. Not the most refined, yes, but we gotta start somewhere.

JC: I kinda regret being so invested in this elections. I was happier when I was indifferent.

TP: No, you shouldn't. It’s your job to fight for what you believe is best for your kids. If you lose, at least your kids will know you fought with your best.

JC: Don't mind me. I'm still sourgraping.

TP: Oo nga.

JC: Hahaha! One week of grieving should be enough.

TP: But at the rate things are going, this will be a positively interesting presidency. Gender parity in the cabinet [TP: Trudeau-esque],insurgents themselves asking for peace [SunStar], Lumads feeling hope [Inquirer], and the Catholic church amenable with Con-Con, which never happened, showing CBCP has trust in Digong even if the find the latter problematic [Inquirer].

JC: I hope with all of my bitter heart that you're right.

TP: Yeah, this nation is starting to unite slowly, and he hasn’t even sat on the Iron Throne yet. #GoT

JC: Ugh, your devotion is scary. I hope you don't become his apologist.

TP: Devotion to the Filipino people, yes. Devotion to Rody, no. The only problem I see so far is overzealous persons surrounding him. Right now, he's still mum on it, but he is on vacation. We will see next week if there are symptoms that suggest na the system will swallow him whole.

Again, I have relatively low expectations. Just a diffusal of political power from ruling class to masses… if he manages to do that, I’m good.

JC: We're good however the economy turns out. I only expect him to discipline his zealots to stop harassing everyone who disagrees with them

TP: He doesn’t have to. Give it a year or two and the Dutertroll phenomenon will die down. Human beings, by nature, are insatiable.

JC: True.


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