December 23, 2016

#OustDuterte: Leila, Leni, Lourdes, Loida, LP, and Plan 0117

Let’s talk about what this new plan could be, a plan that I call “Plan Q1 2017”. In yesterday’s “#OustDuterte: Daddy D worries about a 1st Quarter Ouster Plot?”, I enumerated the five major players involved in this plot.

They are:
  • LEILA: Sen. Leila de Lima handles international opinion7
  • LP: The Liberal Party handles political machinery
  • LOIDA: Loida Nicolas-Lewis handles finances
  • LOURDES: Chief Justice Lourdes Sereno keeps “the enemy” at bay, and
  • LENI: Vice-president Leni Robredo serves as Cory Aquino 2.0, Duterte’s replacement.
You probably wonder: why Q1 2017?

Why should LP effect an ouster move in the first quarter of 2017?

Let me answer that.

Actually, calling the ouster plot Plan Q1 2017 is not very accurate, as that means the plan may take effect somewhere between New Year’s Day and the end of March. After some thought, I realized that if Plan Q1 2017 is to be implemented, it should be on the first half of January 2017.

For this reason, let’s rename Plan Q1 2017 to Plan 0117, where 0117 denotes January 2017.

Let’s ask a new, more specific question: why January 2017?

Why Plan 0117?

Why January 2017?

There are three reasons why an ouster plot should be complete by mid-January 2017.

First is international  recognition.

Philippine Presidents can be constitutionally removed in three ways: resignation, death, or impeachment. The first two are out of the question, and after the old man appointed Mark Villar, impeachment is impossible at least up to 2019 [TP: Plan B].

Thus, Leni and LP are left with three extraconstitutional, extrajudicial options: [1] assassination, [2] coup d’état, or [3] people power (not that there’s much of a difference between [2] and [3]).
Should Leni and LP implement any of the three methods, the final result will be an extraconstitutional power transition, which would require the newly-formed government to seek international recognition.

And what’s the single biggest step towards international recognition?

Getting recognition from the United States.

However, Leni and LP’s political connections in the United States are largely confined within the Democratic Party led by US President Barack Obama and losing 2016 presidential candidate Hillary Clinton.

Thus, if Leni and LP will oust Daddy D, they will need to oust him while they are still in power. However, Obama is in power only until January 21, 2017 local time, as President-elect Donald Trump takes his oath of office at 12 NN EST, 20 January 2017 [Telegraph], or 1:00 AM 21 Jan 2017 Manila.

Second is BBM’s electoral protest.

The entire ouster plot rests on the assumption that Leni will succeed Duterte, but this won’t happen if Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos (BBM) replaces Leni per a successful electoral protest, and a closer look at the developments of the protest case doesn’t bode well for Robredo.

Per Presidential Electoral Tribunal (PET) Rules [A.M. No. 10-4-29-SC], there are 21 steps involved in hearing the electoral protest case. The ball started rolling pretty fast after BBM filed the case on 29 June 2016 [Star] and by August 17th, the case was already at Step 6 [BBM].

Now, step 7 is the part where the Supreme Court issues a Notice of Preliminary Conference. Four months after Step 6, the Supreme Court has yet to call for a preliminary conference.

Then everything stopped.
But who handles the scheduling for PET? Chief Justice Maria Lourdes Sereno, and I can see two major motives:
  • Lourdes is staunchly anti-Marcos. She even voted against the Marcos LNMB burial [GMA].
  • Lourdes is already losing her grip on the SC after nine justices denounced her machinations at the Judicial and Bar Council (JBC) [Interaksyon], and she’s about to lose it fully as Duterte appoints 10 justices from now until October 2019 [TP: SC Math].

By the way, Duterte is already about to appoint two: Justice Perez retired on 14 December 2016 [SunStar] and Justice Brion is set to retire on 29 December 2016 [Star].

Yes, a Duterte Presidency is bad for Lourdes, so Lourdes has to stall.

But she has been stalling for four months already, and BBM supporters – millions of them – are bound to notice really, really soon.

Third, the weather.

Sounds really stupid, but it really is an important factor.

Recall that Duterte can be ousted via assassination, coup d’état, and People Power. However, I think an assassination is out of the picture because the Presidential Security Group has a pretty good track record of keeping presidents alive. Thus, we are left with two: coup d’état, and People Power.A coup d’état is insufficient by itself because of the military and the police being largely loyal to Duterte. Will AFP Chief Visaya or PNP Chief Bato stage a coup? Of course not, so it’s going to be someone who’s not in the core leadership.

Why the loyalty? This.

Trillanes (or one of them drug-generals) do not exercise complete control over the military. That is, whoever minor general or officer stages a coup, he will not end up leading the military.

Here’s where People Power becomes the primary mode of ouster, with the coup d’etat serving a supplementary role. But People Power requires lots of people, and the only time you can mobilize people for days is when the weather is kind.

People Power can never happen from March to May because the demonstrators will die from heatstroke. It can’t be from June to October because of the rainy season (i.e. floods). And November-December is the Christmas Season: people are simply too busy with their own lives.

Yes, People Power is most feasible if held during the first couple of months of the year.

Plan 0117 Recipe 

Now that we have discussed the “Why”, it’s time to talk about the “How”.

Step 1: Set a deadline

The key date is January 20th, which is Trump’s inauguration. If I were one of them ouster plotters, I will stage the People Power revolution just a few days after New Year’s Day. Remember that it takes several days for People Power to work, and several more days for the international community to react, so “finishing the process” several days before Obama steps down is crucial.

Just look at this meme that Silent No More posted on 20 December 2016 [FB].

Silent No More's December 10 2016 Facebook meme

As discussed earlier, the BBM electoral protest case, has been in suspended animation since September, so how in the world would the High Court rule on it if it hasn’t even conducted a preliminary conference?

More than anything else, this meme is an attempt at mind conditioning.

The page suggests that if something has to be done, it has to be done before 10 January 2017.

Step 2: Gain local legitimacy

After gaining international legitimacy, the next step would be gaining recognition from the Filipino Public. This is tricky for LP, as Duterte has maintained high popularity ratings [CCTV] despite the negative coverage from local and international media.

LP and the gang recently tried to drum up support for Duterte’s ouster by capitalizing on the Marcos Burial Issue [MT], but to no avail. It appears that Duterte’s Teflon Status [TP: BangkoSerye] is still in effect up to this day.

If real local support cannot be obtained, then the next best thing would be to use something akin to real local support, which brings us to…

Step 3: Mobilize People

Manileños are unlikely to join any LP-led People Power Revolution, because Manileños voted overwhelmingly in favor of BBM [GMA]. That is, if Leni wants a mass demonstration, she will need hakot crowds from nearby provinces… such as Laguna.

Earlier this month, Greco Belgica said VP Leni was in Laguna on 11 December 2016 and met with a certain Mayor at a golf course to ask help to gather people – hakot – for a rally they will stage [FB: Belgica].

I tried to verify Belgica’s intel, and I found out from an independent source that while a Jesse-Robredo-protégé-cum-Laguna-politico declined Leni’s request, many local politicos didn’t. Add hakot crowds from Bicol and elsewhere, and the numbers should be sufficient to stage a massive demonstration a la EDSA People Power.

Step 4: Gain Military-Police Support

I doubt that any People Power-esque demonstration will be successful, as that would require military and police defections, which are unlikely [TP: Martial Law].

Loyalty of the military and the police, however, may not be as iron-clad as pro-Duterte camps would hope. For one, the drug-linked PNP generals [Journal] may still command some loyalty, especially to low-ranking cops who benefitted from the drug trade.

More importantly, some AFP generals loyal to Aquino or the Drug Cartels may still switch sides.

Yes, Duterte did not link AFP generals when he announced the first drug list in July, but given how corrupt the government is pre-Duterte, what are the odds that more than a few generals, colonels, and majors, also partake of the illegal drug largesse?

That’s something that the Duterte Government may want to check on.

Oh, and did I mention the intel I got a few weeks ago [FB]?

“A source who belongs to a prominent group of active and retired military officers said a fallen lady cabinet member had two low key meetings with a former president, among others. One the other week, and the more secret one last week.

Source was already telling the others na may binabalak. Of course, our President has his sources too. It is a power grab trying to cite incompetence. They are trying to smear him and Dela Rosa. If you noticed, a lady senator's controversy is their smoke screen, and her fellow senator-ally is trying to drum up support in and out.

They have connections in the US Embassy, whose security officers are loyal to senator-ally. They are the ones feeding negative info and translations about PRRD.

Source said he/she got info that they are feeding info to international sympathizers. They are also trying to paint our president as a coddler of the corrupt and as the real crime and drug syndicate coddler. They are investing on PR firms. 2 big ones.

They are trying to set the stage for a people power and/or coup d'etat as the senator-ally, despite his infamy, still enjoys the loyalty of his classmates.”
Go figure.

Step 5: Gain International Recognition

Leila’s moves are already very well known. As a matter of fact, her actions since June 30th may already constitute a pretty strong case of inciting to sedition [TP: Sedition]. And to make sure that the international community never forgets LP’s international propaganda, the yellows even orchestrated a global anti-Duterte media blitz in the first week of December, as pointed out by my journalist-friend Krizette Chu [FB].

The alleged extrajudicial killings in the Drug War should be enough for a prospective Duterte overthrow to gain international legitimacy, i.e. the anti-Duterte propaganda likely puts the global public at a better position to recognize the legitimacy of whoever replaces the old man, i.e. VP Leni Robredo [TP: Chito Gascon].

The success rate of this ouster plot would’ve been better if Hillary won, as the Liberal Party-aligned Washington lobby group US-Philippines Society, where Loida is a director and Manny V Pangilinan is co-chair, identify as Democrats. Loida even donated to the 2016 Clinton campaign [TP: Trump].

Too bad Trump won.

But LP and the gang has gone this far, so I guess they still feel that the show must go on.

What can we do?

Assassination attempts are best dealt with by the Presidential Security Group (PSG) and the Intelligence Service of the Armed Forces of the Philippines (ISAFP). For prospective coup attempts, it’d be the AFP with the guidance of ISAFP. I am pretty confident that the government, by itself, can handle these two issues.

But not People Power.

I am not exactly sure how Leni will transport large hakot crowds from Laguna and Bicol. But if she somehow manages to assemble at least fifty thousand in Manila, then that will be a problem. The government has no way of effectively dispersing the crowd because of their sheer number. The government may also be accused of brutality as soon as it throws the first tear gas canister.

With this said, I call upon those against destabilization to be vigilant. Be on the lookout for any development from now until the end of January. Stay online and active on social media.

Should Leni and the yellow bleeding hearts stage a People Power Revolution, we will be left with no other option but to safeguard our collective political interests.

If Leni stages a People Power, let’s stage a bigger People Power.

I still do not know who will lead our counter-protest.

But if no one steps up, Mocha, Sass, and I will. [ThinkingPinoy]

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